Showing posts with label security. Show all posts
Showing posts with label security. Show all posts

Thursday, 12 November 2015

RCTs in poverty reduction and development: why are some practitioners abandoning RCTs?

This blogpost about ethics in international development is about a randomised control trial (RCT) in Kenya. In the experiment, some households in Kenya were given unconditional cash transfers of either USD 404 or USD 1525. The researchers found, unsurprisingly, that the lucky ones were happier and that their unlucky neighbours were unhappy. The paper is aptly titled “Your Gain is my Pain”.

Most importantly, however, the blogger reflects on why this type of research is done at all: "Am I the only one to think that is not ethical dishing out large sums of money in small communities and observing how jealous and unhappy this makes the unlucky members of these tight knit communities?" 

For myself, as a development practitioner with a systems thinking perspective, RCTs can come across as having very limited usefulness and application. They can also be quite machine-based: they either choose to wilfully ignore human behaviour or they simply limit their interactions with other disciplines (psychology, sociology, anthropology) so that they can create more simple hypotheses. Thus, it is felt that the applicability of an RCT for complex problems (such as systemic poverty) is limited.

The RCT we have seen from Kenya seems to fall into that trap too. This RCT seems to need to test the notion that poor people in Kenya might not exhibit the same reactions and behaviours as other people. As if the nature of the human condition (in Africa) is under exploration. To me, this is strange and feels like the original hypotheses might have been drastically distilled and reduced down to overly simplified thoughts.

I wonder how the findings would actually be useful to policy and projects. Who might need proofs from an RCT that Kenyans are like any other human being? How could such research be useful for development planning at an economic or social level? Why is the notion that proving that desperation, jealously and unhappiness occurs among very poor people is valuable? I would also wonder what long-lasting impact this type of research would have on social relationships in the communities in the future.

Globally, there is a large community of development practitioner who feel that RCTs in poverty interventions are not ethical and not useful. From my conversations with them, they make the following points:
  1. In many RCTs, an assumption is made that the the groups will not be communicating with each other. However, it is actually very difficult to have demarcated and clear boundaries for the treatment groups to be adequately isolated. People talk. Information can flow through multiple channels and through multiple mechanisms (face-to-face, mobile phone, internet, etc) across groups, geographies, social hierarchies, institutions, etc. 
  2. In RCTs, people might be very desperate because of the psychological and social impact of poverty and crisis. In this case all the RCT does is exacerbate that desperation and exacerbate those behaviours that present themselves when people are in desperate situations. The results are therefore naturally biased and skewed and outlying when compared to any group at any point in time. This is not adequately recognised in RCTs and thus not at all reflected when RCTs attempt to influence policy and project applications.
  3. Over time, the RCT can have a lasting negative impact. Those RCTs which test the type of reactions as the one featured here in Kenya - jealousy and unhappiness - can damage social relationships between individuals and groups even after the trial has ended. Real people are not as adept to switching off their pain and trauma (and any additional feelings of betrayal, anger, envy, frustration, etc.) as machines might be able to! 

Sunday, 12 July 2015

Travelling to Tunisia following the FCO warnings

On the 22 July, several insurance brokers were identified through the British Association for Insurers who will still provide insurance for travel to Tunisia. It was found that the main difference between standard insurance and the specialised insurance for amber (medium risk) countries is the repatriation cost. This also makes the insurance a lot more expensive at around 5 to 10 times higher, which makes it unaffordable for tourists. However, on the other hand, (and quite sadly), flights to Tunisia are quite cheap at the moment (GBP£70 with TunisAir). Maybe for some, this offsets the costs of travel?

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On the 9th July 2015, the Foreign Commonwealth Office (FCO) has advised against all but essential travel to Tunisia. For me, the question is: Why?

Is the FCO advice on Tunisia is going to be helpful to Brits and to Tunisia. Who pays for the evacuation of British tourists? Was this the best way to spend this money?

This is important. Too little trust in the process renders the travel advisory ineffective. Also, preventing people from travelling to Tunisia by invalidating their travel insurance seems line a heavy-handed and quite vindictive way of responding to the security needs of British citizens abroad. There might as well be a ban on any travel for any British tourist. 

The other issue at hand is democracy and systems. When modern, democratic systems fail to provide decent, sane advice on security, do we not fail our core values? Do we not make the job of a terrorist easier? Do we not allow fundamentalism to step in and provide the solution for vulnerable people?

I think some intelligent advice from organisations that work with international staff and have field operations would be welcome.

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  • Holidays have been cancelled
  • Security has been increased in all parts of the country
  • Tunisia joins a list of other countries on the FCO list, including Kenya
  • But, flights in an out of the country are still running
  • There is little clarity around the warning or official definition of 'essential travel'
  • The action underwrites payouts from insurance companies and tour operators
The Foreign Commonwealth Office (FCO) has advised against all but essential travel to Tunisia. A copy of the travel advice is printed below and the main elements are listed above. The Guardian says that tour operators have put on extra flights to fly back the remaining British tourists still in Tunisia.Tour operators have also cancelled outbound flights to Tunisia until October 2015. The foreign secretary, Phillip Hammond says that the British government has completed an assessment of the security measures in tourist areas and judge that "more work is needed to effectively protect tourists from the terrorist threat." According to the Guardian, a spokesman for a hotel in Tunisia said that the British authorities now have better access to the intelligence gathered by Tunisian security services. 

There has been increased security in most parts of the country. However, a Tunis-based North Africa analyst Monica Marks said that tourist zones are still vulnerable. “Securing tourist sites is a herculean task and Sousse was the definition of a soft-target attack, a gunman targeting people on their sun beds.” Moreover, it is claimed that the Tunisian prime minister has understood and accepted Britain’s decision to upgrade its travel advice.

legal firm says that there is no official definition of 'essential travel'. It suggests that: "This is left to the individual although the FCO gives examples of urgent family or business commitments." Moreover, most travel insurance companies will not provide cover for countries to which the FCO have advised against all but essential travel. A tour operator or airline that cancels a trip will be responsible for refunding the cost. If the flight is cancelled because of travel advice from the FCO then the insurance policy may pay out for accommodation that has already been incurred. If however the trip is cancelled because there are personal concerns about the state of a country (and there is no FCO advice against travelling), the policy will not pay out.


A brief review of Twitter reactions indicates that there are mixed feelings towards the FCO advice.

Several concerns were raised over the impact to Tunisia’s economy. Some make the link between how a weak economy can open up gaps for political fundamentalism - allowing the latter to come forward as a system that is seen to provide a solution where democracy, and a functioning economy and market system cannot.

Some questions were asked around the purpose and the strategy behind the decision. some ask, how can Tunisia strengthen it's response to terrorists if it is now economically weaker? 

There are also questions of the extent of the reach of the security policy. For example, if Tunisia is being ‘evacuated’ of British tourists will the same measures be taken in other countries where British people are being killed, such as Thailand?

Some Twitter concerns and questions also reveals underlying racism. Some reflect on the beauty of the country, yet the savagery of the people – making broad assumptions on an ethnic group and using aggressive and pejorative language to describe culture and behaviour. 

One question that still needs to be answered is: who pays? In turn, this opens up the perspective around: what is the best way to use the money? It could be that it is the government who pays for the repatriation of British tourists because tour operators may not be expected to absorb the cost of what is effectively the government's sudden turnaround on security policy. And, to reiterate, is this the best use of money? Well, if the security situation needs strengthening, would it not be more sustainable for the British government to help build the capacity of security systems and possibly help train security personnel? How about sharing intelligence on Libya and Syria? And even good practices in protecting large complex systems, such as tourist spots and large towns. Britain should have something to share considering the need to protect high-profile targets, such as London.

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Travel advice to Tunisia
A terrorist attack took place at Port El Kantaoui near Sousse on 26 June. Thirty eight foreign tourists were killed, including 30 British nationals. Further terrorist attacks are highly likely, including in tourist resorts, and by individuals unknown to the authorities whose actions may be inspired by terrorist groups via social media. You should be especially vigilant at this time and follow the advice of the Tunisian security authorities and your tour operator, if you have one.
There is a high threat from terrorism in Tunisia. On 4 July the Tunisian government announced it was reinstating the state of emergency, lifted in 2014, as part of its continuing response to the recent terrorist attacks. On 8 July the Tunisian Prime Minister stated publicly that further attacks are likely. The Tunisian authorities have increased their security measures but have also acknowledged the limitations in their ability to counter the current terrorist threat.

 9 July 2015 12 July 2015


Since the attack in Sousse, we have been working closely with the Tunisian authorities to investigate the attack and the wider threat from terrorist groups in Tunisia. Although we have had good co-operation from the Tunisian government, including putting in place additional security measures, the intelligence and threat picture has developed considerably, reinforcing our view that a further terrorist attack is highly likely. On balance, we do not believe the mitigation measures in place provide adequate protection for British tourists in Tunisia at the present time and we have therefore changed our travel advice accordingly.