Wednesday 29 July 2015

What is the TTIP and what effect will it have on developing countries?

The TTIP is the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the USA and the EU. The gains for the US and EU businesses, particularly large corporations in the USA and emerging SMEs in central Europe are huge.
"Between the two of them, the United States and the EU stand for 40 percent of global economic production; their bilateral economic links are the most expansive in the world. The liberalization of these ties would boost global competitiveness and market confidence in a time of economic crisis, and according to some predictions, could create more than two million new jobs. This naturally lends it significant support from many Central European governments." (Center for European Policy Analysis)
There may even be benefits for the UK as a member of the EU. An open editorial by UK policy advisors for the Guardian makes the following points:
TTIP is about doing away with those barriers on both sides. We believe that the agreement of a transatlantic trade deal would benefit the European economy in the long run by up to £100bn – £10bn a year to the UK alone – an adrenalin boost for jobs and growth in our countries when we need it the most. Crucially, the businesses that have most to gain are not large corporations but small and middle-sized enterprises. They don’t have the big firms’ economies of scale or the in-house lawyers to overcome trade barriers.
The criticisms of the TTIP focus around the fact that firstly, it will exacerbate trade imbalances by putting in preferential trade mechanisms (going over and above simply alleviating trade barriers) between the USA and the EU and secondly, result in huge social cost at local level as well as for the Global South.

The UK Parliament , a briefing paper describes the TTIP as follows:
Average tariffs on trade between the EU and US are relatively low. Much of the negotiation therefore centres around non-tariff barriers to trade, such as harmonising product regulation and standards and on measures to protect the rights of investors. 
and frames the benefits as follows:
The economic benefits of TTIP are contested. A study for the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills estimated that the gains to the UK would be £4 billion to £10 billion annually (0.14% to 0.35% of GDP) by 2027. Critics of TTIP argue that these estimates overstate the gains, and that alignment of regulatory standards in areas such as consumer safety, environmental protection and public health could have social costs
 and frame the most contested issues as follows:
Probably the most controversial element of TTIP is Investor State Dispute Settlement (ISDS). These provisions allow investors to bring proceedings against foreign governments that are party to the treaty. These cases are heard in tribunals outside the domestic legal system. The concern is that the ISDS provisions might affect governments’ ability to determine public policy if they are concerned they might be sued by corporations.
In the UK, the main area of concern has been the NHS – in particular, whether any future measures to reduce the private sector’s involvement might be challenged under these provisions. The UK Government and the European Commission have sought to allay these concerns but critics remain to be convinced. Besides ISDS, there are a number of other areas of concern with TTIP including food standards, public procurement, intellectual property, transport and financial services.
 Here is what the War on Want, a civil rights and advocacy organisation, thinks about the TTIP (War on Want)
"...the main goal of TTIP is to remove regulatory ‘barriers’ which restrict the potential profits to be made by transnational corporations on both sides of the Atlantic
Here is what the head of  UNISON, one of the UK's largest trade unions, thinks about the TTIP (Bond)
"TTIP may be a US – EU trade deal, but its impact will be felt all over the world. Multinational corporations will profit, but millions will lose out. People in Britain are angry about the impact TTIP will have on their lives. Unless we also get them angry about the impact of TTIP on the Global South, we will have missed an opportunity, and millions will be a great deal poorer as a result."
 On the impact of the TTIP on the 'Global South', here is what policy advisors suggest might be the impact (Green European Journal):
"[the Global South] is not a homogeneous bloc, but consists, rather, of a range of extremely diverse states which will certainly be negatively affected by any potential US-EU trade agreement. Such effects will result primarily from the diversion of trade flows, but also from, for example, the bilateral setting of global standards. Countries for whom, say, the US represents a main trading partner will be forced to enter into competition with the EU when the T-TIP comes into force.
and cites the following possible impacts on specific trade zones:
It is Mexico’s economy that will suffer most from the T-TIP, as it maintains very close trade relations with both the EU and the US. (...) With the T-TIP the Mexican garment industry, for example, could face increased competition from Europe. (...) the garment industries of both the EU and Mexico are already in competition for access to the US market and, if T-TIP favours European products by lowering tariffs, this would negatively affect Mexico’s garment industry. Another example is the trade in citrus fruits. In the EU, they are mainly imported from South Africa, Egypt and Morocco. So far, the US’s biggest export markets are Canada, Japan and the Netherlands. A trade deal could see US citrus fruit exports to the EU rise, forcing South Africa, Egypt and Morocco to look for new markets.
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http://www.cepa.org/content/ttip-setting-global-standards
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/16/ttip-transatlantic-trade-deal-businesses
http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN06688
http://www.waronwant.org/our-work
http://www.bond.org.uk/blog/119/whos-really-profiting?utm_source=Bond&utm_campaign=995c1d212a-Your_Network_June_2015_W4&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_9e0673822f-995c1d212a-247690901
http://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/the-eu-us-free-trade-agreement-bad-prospects-for-the-global-south/